Federal Reserve policy isn't to blame for the steep inflation and other woes affecting developing nations, the central bank's chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Friday as he tried to rebut a rising chorus of criticism of the Fed's easy-money policies from abroad.
Officials in China, Brazil and other developing nations have argued that the Fed is stoking a new round of investment bubbles and global inflation with its policy of ultra-low interest rates in the United States. Bernanke deflected those arguments and - while acknowledging that the United States needs to make policy changes of its own - again made the case that countries such as China that deliberately depress the value of their currencies are endangering the world economy by making it more prone to financial crises.
The remarks came in a presentation at a central banking conference in Paris before a meeting of the Group of 20.
During the event, put on by the Banque de France Financial Stability Review, Bernanke made clear the dangers that can emerge when vast sums of money gush into a nation, as is the case now in many emerging markets. The U.S. financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, Bernanke argued in the speech and an accompanying research paper, was partly the result of factors including loose oversight and bad lending practices that enabled money from abroad to flow into risky investments, such as mortgage-backed securities.
"To achieve a more balanced international system over time, countries with excessive and unsustainable trade surpluses will need to allow their exchange rates to better reflect market fundamentals" and work at boosting domestic demand rather than relying on exports to feed their economies, Bernanke said, according to a text released by the Fed. When a nation's currency is devalued, its lower-cost exports lure foreign investors and consumers, bringing greater amounts of cash into the economy. That can pose risks, depending on how that money is invested.
Although he did not mention China by name, Bernanke made clear that he thinks the world's most populous nation needs to let the value of its currency rise on global markets to help balance the flow of capital and trade among nations and create a more stable global economy.
"At the same time, countries with large, persistent trade deficits must find ways to increase national saving, including putting fiscal policies on a more sustainable trajectory," he added, a clear reference to the United States.
Much of the gush of capital into emerging markets is driven by their rapid growth and desirable investment opportunities, Bernanke argued. The Fed's policy of low interest rates will help stimulate stronger growth in the United States, which would in turn be good for the world economy, he said.
The developing nations have their own policy tools that could blunt the impact of capital inflows, such as letting their currencies rise, he added.
The Fed chairman also offered his most expansive effort to date to explain the global underpinnings of the wrenching financial crisis.
"The failures of the U.S. financial system in allocating strong flows of capital, both domestic and foreign, helped precipitate the recent financial crisis and global recession," Bernanke said.
Although Bernanke phrased his argument about the root causes of the crisis in cautious, technical language, it boils down to this: The trillions of dollars that global investors poured into the United States from 2003 to 2007 fueled a gigantic housing and mortgage bubble. When it popped, the financial system imploded and the country fell into a deep recession. Bernanke argued that if that money had been channeled into building new factories and roads in the United States, instead of ever-higher property values, it might have had long-term payoffs and global investors and ordinary Americans might have been better off.
Bernanke's latest comments are essentially an update of a concept he first laid out in 2005: the global savings glut. He theorized then that low long-term U.S. interest rates were the result of huge numbers of people in emerging Asian nations such as China and oil-producing nations in the Middle East wanting to save money, outstripping the supply of safe, easy-to-trade investments.
【美国《华盛顿邮报》2月18日文章】题:伯南克指出,美国对流入资金的管理是导致衰退的主要原因(作者 尼尔·欧文)
本·伯南克在新近的演讲和论文中说,金融危机的爆发在很大程度上是因为美国未能富有成效地使用从其他国家流入的巨额资金。但这位美联储主席同时否认中国和其他发展中国家新出现的泡沫是美联储宽松的货币政策导致的。
今天在巴黎举行的会议上,美联储主席作出了迄今为止最全面的努力,来解释导致2007年至2009年危机的根本原因。在演讲和随附的研究论文(该论文是与其三位同事合写的)中,伯南克认为,美国犯了得到巨额流入资金的发展中国家比较常见的错误,即没有把这些资金用在能带来长远利益的方面。
虽然伯南克以谨慎的专业语言表达了对危机根本原因的看法,但其观点可以归结为:2003年至2007年全球投资者注入美国的数万亿美元刺激了巨大的房地产和抵押贷款泡沫,这些泡沫的破裂造成了金融体系的内爆和严重衰退。
相反,如果这些资金用于建设美国的新工厂和道路,那本来可以带来长期利益,使全球投资者和普通美国人都从中受益。
伯南克说:“美国金融体系未能有效分配巨大的资金流,不管是国内还是国外的资金,这导致了最近的金融危机和全球衰退。”
伯南克的新文章提出了新证据,即从2003年至2007年,全世界对美国的安全投资的确有非常大的需求。亚洲发展中国家投资于美国的国库券和政府支持的抵押贷款公司房利美和房地美的债券。中东国家用出售石油的巨额利润也购买这些债券。欧洲对看上去安全的美国资产的愿望十分强烈,银行和其他投资者大量购买被认为应该安全的私营机构抵押贷款债券,不过这些债券最后并不安全。
